military analysis of ukraine war
It is an important transportation hub and sits astride a nexus of road networks. Ukraine may offer a glimpse into the future of artillery. The on-going conflict in the Ukraine proves that the United States, European Union, the Ukraine, and the NATO Alliance hold overwhelming militarty superiority over the Russian Federation. Russian military doctrine toward taking cities is both grimly practical and deadly, favoring heavy artillery, missiles and bombs to terrify civilians and push them to flee, while killing. The Russian . Because. In addition, the Ministry of Defense fired the head of the procurement department while the deputy minister of defense resigned voluntarily. Michael Peck is a freelance journalist. But the mere fact of receiving aid is no guarantee of a positive outcome. However, the collapse of the Russian Federation will prove the European Union and NATO complete economic control of the European Continent from the Atlantic seaboard to the Ural Mountains. The armour protection has been upgraded several times in the Leopard series lifetime, potentially making it a resilient tank on the battlefield. March 3, 2022. Russia will continue to solidify the land bridge from Crimea towards the Donbas. In overall strategic terms, they cannot arrive soon enough for Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russia is still attempting a de facto annexation of parts of eastern and southern Ukraine that it controls. These and other challenges contributed to high attrition rates for the Russian military, including the partial or complete destruction of at least 1,000 main battle tanks, 350 pieces of artillery, 36 fixed-wing aircraft, and 50 helicopters.59. If youre not moving quick enough, youll get caught in the counterfire.. many reforms and innovations since the 2022 invasion. In January 2023, Ukrainian media alleged that the Ministry of Defense was about to overpay suppliers for food for Ukrainian troops. More proactive reforms in civilian control and defense procurement would have ensured Kyivs readiness for a larger war. Indeed, drones may be the key enabler for armies with limited capabilities for directing artillery. We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. The prime place given to the Leopard 2 in these discussions is due to the fact that there are large numbers of this highly-regarded tank that are relatively proximate to Ukraine. This ability to form a uniquely comprehensive foundational intelligence picture The Russian military also faced significant challenges seizing and holding territory. For Russia, annexation of these areas is a fait accompli. Supporting Ukraines armed forces with donations has become a daily routine for thousands of Ukrainian citizens and businesses. Ukrainian ground forces have used UAS to collect intelligence for battlefield awareness, provide real-time or near real-time information to artillery and other systems for standoff attack, perform battle damage assessments, conduct electronic warfare, strike targets, engage in information operations, and execute other missions. Airpower has played a relatively limited role, while artillery has emerged as the dominant weapon. The resilience of Ukrainian resistance is embarrassing for a Western think-tank and military community that had confidently predicted that the Russians would conquer Ukraine in a matter of days . It makes sense to have a new artillery system besides the M109 and the NLOS-C was tested to work even though it may have the range of the M777, it is light, mobile and self-propelled, and might be able to bring 155mm SPH back to the USMC and US Army Light Forces instead of the towed M777. In that context, the Leopard 2s and other main battle tanks would play a key role in Ukrainian defensive actions and counterattacks. RT.ie is the website of Raidi Teilifs ireann, Ireland's National Public Service Media. As a former Seargent Ranging Technical Specialist in the IDF, for a battery of M107A1 self propelled 155 mm Howitzers, we already could fire with 50 meter readius accuracy or even better, if meteriological air current data was provided. All rights reserved. Facing an existential threat, Ukrainian authorities and the public became increasingly intolerant of the endemic corruption that has plagued the country since its independence in 1991. For Ukrainian forces, with finite manpower and equipment resources, this is a punishing phase of operations. But they dont function in a vacuum. But the mere fact of receiving aid is no guarantee of a positive outcome. After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Predict the War's Path. It could also be argued that they have brought a level of flexibility to the overall Russian army which, dogged by traditional command and control systems, has proved to be less than dynamic thus far. One of the main reasons security assistance has succeeded in buttressing the Ukrainian war effort but failed elsewhere has to do with the motivation of Ukraines leadership. New Atlanticist The ability to integrate your own and third-party data with Janes assured With such small numbers, the United States and its NATO allies faced a prolonged insurgency that led to the overthrow of the Afghan government in 2021.38 The force ratio of Russian soldiers in Ukraine was far too small to hold territoryincluding citiesfor long. The Russian Air Force has noticeably increased its missile attacks on targets in the far west of Ukraine and will likely continue to back up threats against US and European resupply of Ukrainian forces with attacks near the Polish border. IranSource provides a holistic look at Irans internal dynamics, global and regional policies, and posture through unique analysis of current events and long-term, strategic issues related to Iran. But weapons and ammunition from Western countries were essential to Ukraines ability to sustain the fight against Russia. We use YouTube to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content. At the same time, highly expensive aircraft and limited stockpiles of smart munitions may be allocated to distant targets in the enemy flank, rather than close-air support. For instance, despite the early successes in strengthening civilian oversight in the Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed a career military officer, General Andrii Taran, as defense minister, and Taran promptly squashed such initiatives. Ukrainian media reported that Russia attacked a Belarusian village from Ukrainian airspace in an attempt to make it appear that Ukraine had attacked Belarus and provoke Belarusian President Lukashenka to move troops into Ukraine. continue unabated to deploy into separatist controlled areas of Ukraine. What do these lessons suggest about the future of the war? How Not to Win in Great Power Competitions, Raising the Political Priority of Cybersecurity in Latin America, Paywall-free reading of new articles and a century of archives, Unlock access to iOS/Android apps to save editions for offline reading, Six issues a year in print, online, and audio editions. Over the next several weeks, Russian actors linked to the GRU, Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and Federal Security Service (FSB) conducted numerous cyberattacks utilizing such malware families as: These types of malware are designed to do a range of malicious activities, such as overwriting data and rendering machines unbootable, deleting data, and destroyingor attempting to destroycritical infrastructure, such as industrial production and processes. Russia now appears set to pressure Ukraine into accepting disadvantageous peace terms by inflicting horrific damage and casualties on the population of Ukraines major cities, strangling its economy and ability for resupply, and potentially causing a humanitarian disaster by disrupting the spring harvest. In addition, roughly a dozen Russian generals and other senior officials were killed on the battlefield, such as Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev, Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, Major General Kanamat Botashev, Major General Andrey Kolesnikov, and Major General Oleg Mityaev.13 These firings and deaths may have exacerbated command and control problems that the Russian military was already experiencing. Similarly, Ukrainian civil society has played a tremendous role in delivering the necessary equipment and services to the frontline. On April 13, for example, Ukrainian forces struck the RTS Moskva, a guided-missile cruiser that was the flagship vessel of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, with Neptune anti-ship missiles.45 The Russian navy lost several other ships to Ukrainian stand-off attacks, including the RTS Saratov, an Alligator-class landing ship; two Raptor-class patrol boats; and a Serna-class landing craft. Even worse for Moscow, NATO is likely to expand to Finland and Sweden. Of course, one significant difference now is that Russia has nuclear weapons. But in Ukraine, mobility has become synonymous with survival. Armys Tactical Radio Procurement Remains Clouded in Confusion, Defense Contractors Ready with Lighter Weight Helmet Shells, Marines' Sequester Bill: 8,000 Troops, Ground Vehicles, Combat Aircraft, Website design and development by Americaneagle.com. These are often dismissed in western media as ex-convicts and mercenaries and their use has been associated with a perceived deterioration in Russian capacity and battlefield atrocities. What do these lessons indicate about the future of the war in Ukraine? Following a relative lull in activity after 1 January, Russia's armed forces appear to have entered their highest level of activity and movement since the autumn-winter build-up began in late October. By It would outclass many of the Russian tank variants still in use and it was actually designed to counter Soviet tanks in the context of the Cold War. Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly. The rest of this brief is organized into three sections. Tyson Wetzel, and Will Leopard 2 tanks be a game-changer in Ukraine? This is why there has been so much heat in recent international discussions about sending further military aid as this comes at a particular pinch point for Ukraine. 2101 Wilson Blvd, Suite 700 NDIA is not responsible for screening, policing, editing, or monitoring your or another user's postings and encourages all of its users to use reasonable discretion and caution in evaluating or reviewing any posting. Microsoft worked closely with the Ukrainian government and cybersecurity staff from other governments and private companies to identify and remediate Russian threat activity against Ukrainian networks before and after the Russian invasion.52 In January 2022, the Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center identified wiper malware in over a dozen Ukrainian networks and alerted the Ukrainian government.53 Microsoft established a secure line of communication with Ukrainian cyber officials to provide real-time threat information and offer technical support to assist Ukrainian efforts to identify and defeat Russian-linked cyberattacks over the course of the war.54 Microsoft worked with Ukrainian government officials to enable controlled folder access, a Microsoft Defender feature, and helped Ukraine run endpoint detection and response solutions.55. The opinions expressed in this op-ed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Military.com. 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